Unexpected Market Winners – Stocks That Have Done Unexpectedly Well Over the Last 6 Months

Photograph By pixabay

By Oliver Aaron

Detroit, Northeastern University

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The past six months have been anything but normal around the globe. Many major global events have occurred, from the United States presidential election to the numerous ongoing conflicts worldwide, leading to unpredictable changes for many companies. This piece aims to report on three publicly traded stocks that have done unexpectedly well over the last six months. As you will see by the three companies outlined, for a stock to do unexpectedly well, it needs to see growth even when external forces are causing others in the industry to do poorly.  Alibaba, MicroStrategy, and Siemens Energy AG have performed unexpectedly well over the last six months. 

Alibaba (BABA)

Founded by Jack Ma in 1999, Alibaba is an e-commerce, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and digital infrastructure company headquartered in Hangzhou, China. The core subsidiaries under Alibaba, includes Taobao (C2C e-commerce), Tmall (B2C e-commerce), Alibaba Cloud (cloud computing services), AliExpress (international retail marketplace), and Cainiao (logistics and supply chain network). With recent financials outperforming analyst estimates, the company reported revenue of $38 billion and a net income of $6.7 billion. A few years ago, Alibaba struggled with regulatory crackdowns, geopolitical tensions, and negative market sentiment. 

In 2020, Chinese regulators began cracking down on Alibaba as they halted Ant Group’s IPO and fined the company $2.8 billion for anti-competitive practices. This move raised fears that the private tech giant could be subject to state intervention. The action sent a strong message to investors that no corporation, no matter how big, was out of Beijing’s reach. Over the next two years, the company's worth decreased by hundreds of billions. Adding to the issues that Alibaba faced in China, the company faced another threat from the United States and China's geopolitical tensions. Global funds were forced to withdraw from Alibaba after trade wars, export restrictions, data privacy concerns, and a potential delisting from the U.S. stock exchange. For many in the West, the focus shifted from profits and growth in Chinese technology stocks to political factors. These tensions reduced the appeal of stocks like Alibaba.

In addition to these issues, Alibaba also faced harsh negative market sentiment from within China. The disappearance of CEO Jack Ma symbolized leadership uncertainty, while other public headlines reinforced the regulatory risk and job cuts looming for the company. In total, these three catalysts made the company quite unappealing to investors. 

As of today, opinions and metrics point to growth within Alibaba, which begs the question of how the company experienced such drastic growth while seemingly facing all of these issues. The answer lies in the development of the AI and cloud market, regulatory shifts, and big investors beginning to buy into Alibaba once again. 

Alibaba entered the AI race by announcing Qwen2.5, the next-generation AI smartphone model that can handle multiple formats such as text, audio, images, and video. This announcement positions the company at the forefront of China's generative AI wave, and the company plans to invest over $50 million in infrastructure over the next three years.

Regulatory shifts within China have also positively affected the company's growth. President Xi Jinping's latest meeting with technology tycoons serves as a signal for the private sector to innovate and grow.  In addition, there are signs of state-organized backing from leading technology companies to support economic growth. This shift helped reassure investors who were once worried that the Chinese technology industry was out of favor.

With large institutional managers and high-profile heads like David Tepper and Michael Berry increasing their positions at Alibaba, their moves have signaled to the rest of the market that the company's stock may be undervalued. Investors who previously refrained from investing are now reconsidering their positions, leading to a corresponding increase in the company's volumes. This added investment has helped rally Alibaba’s stock.

Investors anticipate that Alibaba will reap benefits from the convergence of AI innovation, cloud computing growth, and a consolidating regulatory environment. If the company's AI gamble pays off and China continues to have backing for private sector expansion, the company can regain control of Asia's digital economy. Potential risks should still be considered; geopolitical tensions between the US and China can erupt again on short notice, and a shift in Beijing's regulatory mood can once again frighten investors. Ultimately, Alibaba's Revival stands out as one of the most remarkable market turnarounds of the year, not only due to its significant scale but also due to its implications for the evolving trends in China's tech industry. While there are certainly risks, the company's combination of innovation, restructuring, and political rebalance has given investors a new positive opinion toward the company.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

MicroStrategy was founded in 1989 by Michael J. Saylor, Sanju Bansal, and Thomas Spahr and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia, USA. The company is in the Enterprise Analytics and Mobility Software sector, providing AI-powered business intelligence solutions to global clients. There are core business offerings that include cloud-based services, mobile software, and Enterprise Analytics. At the conclusion of 2024, Microstrategy’s revenue stood at 500 million, while the company’s total assets were reported at $25.84 billion.

MicroStrategy's growth can be considered unexpected due in part to their cryptocurrency Holdings, regulatory and tax challenges, and market sentiment. MicroStrategy is invested heavily in Bitcoin. MicroStrategy has invested heavily in Bitcoin, holding 528,185 bitcoins as of March 31, 2025, at an average price of $66,384.56 per bitcoin. ​The volatility in cryptocurrency markets put the company at significant financial risk, and many questioned the feasibility of this focused investment strategy. With recent changes and accounting rules, doubts have been raised about whether MicroStrategy will have tax implications for its huge unrealized gain from its bitcoin investment. The risk of large tax payments and insufficient cash inflows has heightened investor concern. Analysts have also questioned MicroStrategy’s high exposure to Bitcoin, with some downgrading the stock because of seeming overexposure to volatility in cryptocurrency markets. Analysts also became concerned as the company’s enterprise analytics business took a back seat to its entry into cryptocurrencies.

The factors that have contributed to MicroStrategy's unexpected growth include bitcoin price appreciation, strategic rebranding, and operational developments. The recent price appreciation of Bitcoin has positively impacted MicroStrategy’s asset value, enhancing its balance sheet strength and investor confidence. In addition to the increased use of Bitcoin by institutional investors and businesses, many believe MicroStrategy’s early entry strategy may translate to greater market confidence. In February 2025, MicroStrategy rebranded itself as Strategy, indicating a fresh focus on integrating Bitcoin into its corporate strategy and becoming a leader in the cryptocurrency industry. Strategy certainly focuses on bitcoin, the company continues to enhance its Enterprise Analytics performance, such as AI capabilities and Cloud services, which may form part of its total value proposition. Looking ahead, as Bitcoin's value continues to increase and MicroStrategy can leverage its Holdings effectively, the company can gain substantial financial benefits. While additional innovation in its core Analytics business can provide more sources of Revenue and market opportunities.  Whenever a company is dealing with bitcoin, it's always important to remember the risks and the inherent volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Regulatory changes and potential tax requirements could impact profitability and freedom of operations. A drop in Bitcoin’s market value would adversely affect MicroStrategy’s finances and stock performance. 

In conclusion, MicroStrategy's recent stock surge reflects a complex interplay of cryptocurrency market Dynamics and corporate strategic decisions. Although the company's bold approach has worked in the near term, its long-term success depends on effective risk management, regulatory adherence, and innovation in its core business lines. 

Siemens Energy (ENR)

A spinoff from Siemens AG, Siemens Energy operates along the energy value chain, offering technology and services for traditional and renewable energy systems. The company is headquartered in Munich, Germany, and listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Siemens Energy’s main business segments include Gas Services, Grid Technologies, Transformation of Industry, and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE). For the year 2024, the company's revenue was €74.9 billion, while its net income was €9 billion.

Losses at Siemens Gamesa, weak investor sentiment in the renewable sector, and liquidity concerns all caused investor concerns in Siemens Energy. Severe quality issues plagued Siemens Gamesa, particularly on new offshore turbine platforms, leading to warranty claims and rework costs. The business unit posted massive operating losses in 2022, while in 2023, production bottlenecks and failed project bids eroded investor confidence. These issues resulted in many profit warnings, which destroyed the parent company's valuation. Rising inflation and interest rates increased long-term infrastructure project finance costs, including wind farms, which further weakened investor interest in the renewable sector. Project delays, cost escalations, and increased competition from lower-cost Chinese players further squeezed renewable margins. These issues resulted in many profit warnings, which further harmed the parent company's valuation.

In late 2023, Siemens Energy stunned the market by requesting €15 billion in guarantees from the government to back surety bonds and project financing. The move raised fears of a cash shortage and questions about its ability to fund operations and growth without assistance. Although the request ultimately amounted to €7.5 billion, it damaged the company's reputation in the short term.

Siemens Energy stock is now surging due to aggressive restructuring and Gamesa integration, record order backlog and structural demand, positive re-rating, and institutional buying. Towards the end of 2023, Siemens Energy embarked on a complete acquisition and integration of Siemens Gamesa, removing it from the exchange and exercising full authority over its functions. New management and a better-controlled bidding procedure have started stabilizing project delivery and rebuilding trust. Siemens Energy finished 2024 with a record-high historical order backlog of over €110 billion, indicating higher demand for grid overhauls, renewable power infrastructure, and gas turbine modernization. Governments, utilities, and industry are investing heavily in energy infrastructure to support electrification, hydrogen, and the rollout of renewables — a territory where Siemens Energy has an established presence. In addition, green policy traction and industrial decarbonization programs have created a growth runway with long-term tailwinds.

Finally, positive re-ratings from Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Berenberg analysts cited Siemens Energy's shares as "Buy," with analysts stating better governance, marginal recovery, and high earnings visibility warranted an upgrade. This has increased analyst coverage and improved forward direction, attracting institutional funds back into the name.

Looking ahead, there is a lot of potential upside in Siemens Gamesa. If it returns to sustainable profitability and Siemens Energy continues to convert its backlog into sustainable cash flows, the company should sustain its valuation momentum. On top of this, strong exposure to the grid expansion space, which is key to achieving net zero, means that Siemens Energy is a core infrastructure player. There are still risks involved in Siemens Gamesa, including production issues and workforce shortages, which can derail operational targets. Also, macro headwinds such as rising raw material costs, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory permitting delays can delay or shrink future orders.

However, Siemens Energy’s comeback against expectations reflects a broader revaluation of infrastructure companies focused on energy as central to the transition economy. Benefiting from strong government support, activist restructuring, and a well-balanced order book, the group has positioned itself for a multi-year recovery. Although still exposed to headwinds, notably in its wind division, Siemens Energy has made a credible case for being a survivor and a leader in the energy future. 

Editor's Opinion

As I look to the near future, I hold strong beliefs regarding the stock performance of all three of these companies. Alibaba's ability to benefit from its AI innovation and cloud computing technology will certainly set the company up for steady stock performance growth in the near future.  Additionally, if China can continue to back private expansion, I see Alibaba as a favorable stock in that market.  Regarding MicroStrategy, if the company’s bet on Bitcoin pays off, then you can expect to see sustained financial benefits and stock growth. Combined with innovation in the company’s main analytics business, MicroStrategy is a Company I would certainly keep an eye on.  As someone with a growing fascination with the energy sector, I am incredibly excited to see where Siemens Energy’s stock will go this year. If Siemens Energy can continue to turn backlog into reliable cash and become heavily involved in upgrading power grids, then the company can not only become a key player in building future energy systems but also help grow the stock value for the company.   While it is exciting to see where the value of these companies’ stocks goes in the future, let us not forget the remarkable turnaround and unexpected growth experienced by Alibaba, MicroStrategy, and Siemens Energy.

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Researched by

Sanjay Selvam

Charlotte, Notheastern University

Jaiveer Kumar

Mumbai, Northeastern University

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